SJSU Spartans vs. SDSU Aztecs Free Pick for Friday October 21, 2016, from Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California. San Diego State is favored by 23.5 points with the total set at 48 points.
Against the Spread
The Aztecs head into the game as a big favorite, and for a good reason. They’re 5-1 straight up this season while the visiting Spartans have won only one of their six games, a 14-10 home win against Nevada last Saturday. The Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win and 2-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. They’re still surrendering nearly 36 points per game despite the solid performance against Nevada, but this will be a much tougher test.
San Diego State has won all its games apart from a 42-24 loss at USA as an 18.5-point favorite on October 1. They’ve won two matchups since and won 17-3 at Fresno State last week. The Aztecs held their opponent to a total of 217 yardage and are allowing only 298.5 for the season. The Spartans are allowing much more at 444 yards per game. The Spartans are struggling to stop the run and that’s were the Aztecs excel with their offense built around running back Donnel Pumphrey (167 carries, 1111 yards, 11 TD YTD). He’s accumulated 220 yards with a pair of scores against Fresno State.
The SDSU won 30-7 as a 2.5-point underdog at San Jose State last season. Spartans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings at Qualcomm Stadium.
Both teams have split their six games regarding the over/under this season. Over is 4-1 in Spartans’ last five Friday night games and 5-2 in their last seven road games. Under is 4-1 in the Aztecs last five Friday night games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games.