Expert Free Picks

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Off to an 0-2 start, it's not exactly desperation time for Sean Payton's Broncos, but it's getting close. The Dolphins are off to a perfect 2-0 start following consecutive road victories, including a narrow win over the division-rival Patriots last Sunday night in Foxborough. While Miami is expected to have LT Terron Armstead back on the field, it is likely to be missing Jaylen Waddle in its receiving corps. I don't think Waddle's absence can be understated. That means the Broncos can put Patrick Surtain II on Tyreek Hill primarily, taking the pressure off of the rest of their defense. There's absolutely nothing special about this matchup for the Dolphins offense. The question becomes whether the Denver offense can do enough to put any pressure on Miami's defense. I've come away encouraged by what I've seen from Broncos QB Russell Wilson through the first two games. WR Jerry Jeudy returned last week and should put some pressure on the Miami secondary here. I believe this line should be closer to a field goal. Take Denver.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Green Bay Packers -2

The New Orleans Saints are off to a 2-0 start this season against a pretty weak schedule.  I think they are getting too much respect for their two wins, and they should be at least a 3-point underdog here against the Green Bay Packers.  We are getting good value here laying this short number with the Packers at home.

The Saints opened the season with a 1-point home win over the Tennessee Titans despite being gifted 3 interceptions from Ryan Tannehill.  Last week, the Saints beat the Panthers by 3 on the road.  That's the same Panthers team that lost by 14 on the road to the Falcons the week prior and looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL to this point.  That makes this a short week for the Saints after playing on Monday Night Football, and this is clearly a step up in class for them this week.

I think if you asked the Packers prior to the season they would have taken a 1-1 start considering their first two games came on the road.  After blasting the Bears 38-20, the Packers blew a 12-point 4th quarter lead to the Falcons last week and lost 25-24 on a last-minute field goal.  You can bet they will be out for blood this week after playing seven great quarters and one terrible one that cost them a 2-0 start.

Now the Packers will be playing their home opener with one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL.  They will be fired up in support of Jordan Love's home debut.  Love has been very good with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 35 rushing yards and 7.0 per carry thus far.  After not having two of his best weapons against the Falcons in WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones, there's a chance he gets both back this week.  Watson returned to practice and is probable, while Jones is a 50/50 proposition.

The Packers are fully healthy on defense and improved.  The Saints are only scoring 18.0 points per game this season and are dealing with injuries of their own on offense.  They just aren't nearly as explosive without Alvin Kamara, who will miss this game as well.  His replacement Jamaal Williams is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  QB Taysom Hill has been getting a lot of work in the backfield as a result, and even he's questionable with a knee injury.

Matt LaFleur is 12-3 ATS in September games as the coach of Green Bay.  LaFleur is 10-2 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Packers.  Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. conference opponents.  The Packers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a road game.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

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Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Cal/Washington UNDER 59.5

The Key: Both Cal and Washington have elite defenses.  Cal held Auburn to 14 points and 230 total yards two weeks ago.  They held a potent North Texas offense to 21 points and 225 total yards.  And last week they held Idaho State to 17 points.  Washington held Boise State to 19 points, Tulsa to 10 and Michigan State to 7.  Both offenses are improved, but I think we see a defensive battle in this Pac-12 opener.  That has been the case in recent matchups with the UNDER going 4-1 in the last 5 with 49, 55, 39, 22 and 45 combined points.  None sniffed this 59.5-point total.  Take the UNDER.

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With an 0-2 record, Payton's team is going to be extremely focused. Perhaps more so than the Dolphins. Miami is off a divisional victory and has a big showdown at Buffalo on deck. The Dolphins' two wins have come by an average of 4.5. The Broncos' two losses have come by an average of 1.5. In a game that will likely also be close, I recommend grabbing the points with the visiting Broncos.

1* NFL - Chargers/Vikings FREE Pick on OVER 54

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Dallas Cowboys -12.5

The Dallas Cowboys have outscored their first two opponents in the Giants and Jets by a combined 70-10 score.  It will be more of the same here against the Arizona Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals have opened 2-0 ATS with losses but covers against Washington and the Giants.  Now they take a big step up in competition here against the Cowboys.  Josh Dobbs won't be able to match Dak and company score for score.  The Cowboys also clearly have one of the best defenses in the NFL yet again this season.  Their defensive line will dominate this game up front against a shaky Arizona offensive line.  Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and Daniel Jones torched them in the second half last week.  Jones has looked terrible in his two other games this season.  Arizona is without several key players on defense including S Budda Baker.  Dallas is 15-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Give me the Cowboys.

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#467 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +8.5 at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are on the visiting dog here with the Colts and the points. Let’s start with the scheduling and preceding results for both teams. Baltimore is off a big road win over an AFC North rival Cincinnati, are a ‘fat’ 2-0, and have road dates looming at Cleveland and Pittsburgh. We are not overly impressed with either of the Ravens wins as they were largely outplayed in Week #1 by the Texans at home, then beat a struggling Bengals team with an injured QB in Burrows. The Colts meanwhile lost by 10pts at home in the opener to a Jags team that scored two TD’s in the final 5:14 of the game. Last week the Colts went to Houston and beat the Texans 31-21 and averaged 6.3 yards per play offensively. Indianapolis was balanced with 126-rushing yards and 227-passing. They did lose QB Richardson in the game with a concussion, but Gardner Minshew might be the best backup in the league. Minshew came into the game and went 19 of 23 for 171-yards and a TD. Based on some core statistics there isn’t an 8-point difference between these two teams. The Colts allowed 4.9YPP (12th best) the Ravens allow 4.3YPP (4th). Indianapolis averages 5.1YPP offensively, the Ravens average 5.3YPP. Baltimore is just 14-24 ATS since 2018 as a home favorite with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. Looking at that same time frame, the Colts are 17-11-2 ATS as a road dog (60.7%) with an average +/- versus the spread of +1.4PPG. Grab the points and the dog.

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Sunday’s FREE PLAY: Houston Texans.

Game 455.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

My friends, I could make this analysis as short and sweet as I am, and just say “this is way too many points for Jacksonville to be laying.”  Guys, I am fully aware of the fact the Houston Texans are 0-2, both straight up and against the spread the season. I have been reading this week because the Texans lost last week to the Colts, 31-20, we should fade them because the Jaguars defeated the Colts a few weeks ago, 31-21. That is a huge mistake made by sports bettors all the time. Sure, you can gauge a few things against how one team plays a certain team as opposed to another. But football is about situations. And this is a very different situation. Prior to the January 1, 2023 Jacksonville win over Houston, the Texans took the nine previous meetings in this series straight up, going 7-2 against the spread. The Texans have always played the Jaguars very tough, my friends. No question Trevor Lawrence is a very good quarterback. No question CJ Stroud isn’t as far along as many had hoped this early in the season. But right now, after just a few games in to the regular season, the Texans possess the fifth ranked passing unit in the NFL, while the Jaguars own the 15th ranked passing offense. The fact that neither team is really running the ball with any success, tells me that this will come down to mistakes. And right now, Lawrence has made a few more miscues than Stroud. And on top of that, when it comes down to crunch time, and by that, I mean in the red zone, the Jaguars have come up way short. Do I think on paper t they were a better team than the Texans? Absolutely I do. But football isn’t played on paper. And I feel this is way too many points for this team to lay. FYI, my friends, Houston has covered three of their last four as a visitor. Take the points for the Texans. Thank you.

Seahawks -5

The Panthers (0-2, 0-1-1 ATS) are gearing up to face the Seahawks (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Lumen Field, with kickoff set for 4PM. It's a crucial match as both teams look to improve their NFC records. The betting odds tell a compelling story. The Seahawks are currently sitting at -6.5 points. When it comes to the ML, the Hawks are at -290, while the Panthers stand at +235. The Total, is set at 41.5 (O/U). As we approach Sunday betting action, the Seahawks' number has seen a slight dip, reflecting the influence of sharp money or public money flowing in on Carolina.

The injury reports are a mess, and as I write this we still don't have the Friday NFL reports, so please check those out there are a number of key injuries on both sides in this one. They do play a factor.

Bryce Young is going to get an introduction to a road-game-playoff-atmosphere on Sunday in Seattle. Always one of the loudest venues to play at Lumen can be a nightmare for rookie QB's trying to make adjustments at the line. (It's damn near impossible). Bobby Wagner will have this Hawks D flying all over the field on Sunday, and IF they get Jamal Adams back (I think they do) it will be even tougher for Young.

The Panthers are losing defensive starters daily. Horn, then Thompson. These guys are needed to win road games when facing the likes of Smith, Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njigba. This is a tall task for the Panthers defense. Throw in Walker III and Charbonnet coming down hill at you all day and this doesn't look good. 

IF for some reason Dalton starts the 7 points (Hawks will cover the 5) will be tougher to cover, but having said that with Young, the Hawks will win by 10-14). The Hawks got right last week with a huge road win over the Lions in a crazy loud Detroit.

Some trends to note, Carolina are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games on the road, are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against Seattle.

This is a long trip for the Panthers on a short week, and we're on the Hawks -5 on Sunday. 

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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