Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets Free Picks 11/16/16. Ricky Tran outlines 5 reasons why a certain outcome of the game will come true.
The Toledo Rockets will host the Ball State Cardinals at Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio in Wednesday’s College Football action. The game has a 7:00 PM EST start and will be televised on ESPN2. The latest odds have Toledo favored by 20.5 points with the total set at 65 points. For more Ball State vs. Toledo Free Picks and other college football predictions take a look at the expert free picks page.
5 Reasons Why: Play Ball State Cardinals +20.5
1. Previous Meetings: The two MAC West rivals have played at least once every year over the last 10 seasons. The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and they’ve covered the spread in five straight visits to Toledo.
2. Road Warriors: Ball State are 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread on the road this season. They’ve clamped down defensively in their away games, allowing only 24.6 points per game which can be compared to their 30.3 overall average this season. You do the math, if they can hold the Rockets to their road game season average they don’t need to score many points in order to cover the spread.
3. Reverse Line Movement: The public is extremely high on Toledo in this contest with 84 percent of the tickets backing the home team. The spread has moved the other way, with Toledo moving from -21 to -21.5. Let’s follow the sharp money.
4. Midweek Game: These teams should be getting used to Wednesday games by now, but laying almost three touchdowns in a mid-week MAC game seems exaggerated, almost no matter the match-up.
5. Ball State’s Recent Results: The Cardinals have failed to cover the spread in four straight games and five of their last six. Don’t think that the sportsbooks are unaware of this fact. The bookmakers are not in the business of giving away free money and they’re likely to over-adjust and give Ball State more points than they should. That’s exactly what I think have happened here, so take the points on Ball State.