Understanding why line moves for sports betting events and matchups is a vital component in being a profitable handicapper. Here we have a pair of games on Saturday’s College Football card where the lines have moved for completely different reasons.
Line Movement Bets
Tulsa vs. Navy -2
The Navy Midshipmen opened this contest against the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes as a 2.5-point underdog but they are now a 2-point favorite. With 73 percent of the money on the home team the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust the odds.
The Golden Hurricanes have won three straight while averaging 51.3 points, so why all the love for Navy? The Midshipmen are coming off an emotional one-point win over rival Notre Dame and they’re 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Navy has been excellent home at Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, going a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread.
The line movement for this play is most likely driven by both public and sharp money considering the extreme shift, but keep in mind that that was the case for the opening line and might not hold true any longer. Another thing to worry about when it comes to steam plays is that most sports bettors lose long term, so do you really want to follow the rest of the herd?
Reverse Line Movement
Wyoming vs. UNLV +7.5
With 90 percent of the tickets coming in on the Wyoming Cowboys you would expect them to be an even bigger favorite than the opener of 8-point favorite by now, but that’s not the case. The line is instead moving in the opposite direction with UNLV Rebels getting 7.5-points right now.
Both of the Cowboys losses this year have come on the road, and UNLV is coming off a bye week. Wyoming is coming off a 52-28 trouncing of Utah State, but the team is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
The reverse line movement for this game is quite extreme, and if you want to follow the sharp money then a wager on the UNLV Rebels is advised.