Mississippi State vs LSU Expert CFB Free Pick September 17

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers
Jimmy Boyd recommends a play on  LSU -13½ -108

This might seem like a big spread for LSU to be laying. The Tigers haven’t exactly looked dominant in their first two games. They lost outright as a double-digit favorite to Wisconsin. They then only won by 21 as a 30-point favorite against Jacksonville State.

Clearly the Tigers were overvalued coming into the season, but now is the time to jump on the LSU bandwagon. I believe the fact that Mississippi State covered last week is helping this line. Had they lost that game or barely won, we could be looking at a spread of 17 to 20 points.

Simply put, the Bulldogs are way down this year. Beating a bad Gamecocks team at home doesn’t change my view of them. They just don’t recruit well enough to replace what they lost from last year. Most notably quarterback Dak Prescott, who is arguably the best player they have had.

Without Prescott, the last two games in this series wouldn’t have been close. He had 268 yards passing and 105 rushing in their upset in LSU in 2014. Last year he had 335 yards passing and a score on the ground.

I just don’t see the Bulldogs being able to generate enough offense to keep this one close. Keep in mind LSU won last year’s meeting with only 71 yards passing. That was with Brandon Harris as the starter. He was benched in last week’s game against Jacksonville State. Danny Etling replaced him and all signs point to him starting on Saturday.

I love that LSU is finally moving past Harris, who has been awful as a starter. I believe Etling can give the Tigers a more balanced attack, which they needed. I also think we are going to see the team rally behind their new start, as don’t think the truly believed Harris was the guy to lead them to the promise land. That’s going to open up more running lanes for Leonard Fournette. Not that it would matter here. He had 159 yards and 3 scores last year against the Bulldogs with no passing threat.

The other big key here is that this game has a little extra meaning for LSU. The Tigers don’t lose at home often (64-9 since 2006). They haven’t forgot what happened two years ago. With this being a night game at Tiger Stadium, I think it could get ugly in a hurry.

Mississippi State is just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after allowing 7 points or less in the 1st half of their last 2 straight games. Take LSU!

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