Expert Free Picks

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Cincinnati Reds -116

The Cincinnati Reds are heating up at the plate scoring 5.8 runs per game in their last eight games.  They should provide Hunter Greene with plenty of run support today against Baltimore starter Brandon Young, who will be making his MLB debut in this one.

Greene is already among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young.  He is 2-1 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 3 earned runs and 16 base runners with 31 K's in 27 2/3 innings.

It is no fluke for Greene, who went 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 26 starts last season with 169 K's in 150 1/3 innings.  He is quickly becoming one of the best starters in baseball, and the Reds are favored for good reason today.  Bet the Reds Saturday.

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Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Seattle Mariners -119

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seattle Mariners over the Toronto Blue Jays today.  The Mariners have a big edge on the rubber in this contest and will be hungry to bounce back from a Game 1 defeat.  Logan Gilbert is 42-31 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 125 lifetime starts and 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.66 WHIP in 4 starts this year with 32 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings.  Regression has hit Jose Berrios hard this year.  He is 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 4 starts while yielding 13 ER and 5 HR in 22 2/3 innings.  Gilbert held the Blue Jays to 1 ER in 7 2/3 innings in a 6-1 victory in his last start against them.  Berrios yielded 4 ER and 2 HR in 6 innings in his last start against the Mariners.  Take Seattle.

**4X Top 5 MLB Handicapper!** Dave is on a 2221-1971 MLB Run since June 8th, 2011 to really put a beating on the books in baseball! His $1,000/game investors won $15,660 in MLB in 2023! He finished as the #1 Ranked MLB Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game investors winning $41,530 for an even bigger season! Dave's $1,000/game MLB investors are up $84,600 since September 17th, 2022! He is currently the #1 MLB Capper in 2025 this season as well! He is in the midst of a 291-229 Run L77 Days in all sports! Give your book the beating it deserves today and hop on board for Dave's Saturday All Sports 11-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* Timberwolves/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* which is among 2 NBA & 9 MLB picks for you to crush your book with today ladies and gents! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get Sunday's picks for FREE!

[1%] Free Play on Angels under 9 -115

PSP Data Driven 1* Rangers.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Dodgers are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. The Rangers are 3-1 in their last 4 home games. 

David's 1% MLB Free Pick

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line is heavily influenced by Detroit's scheduled starter, Casey Mize's, last outing, where he surrendered four runs on seven hits at Minnesota, but Mize allowed just one run total in his first two starts and the Royals have started the season cold at the plate. 

This is a 1% free play on the Tigers

1* Free Play on Yankees +129

Magic vs Celtics 
5-Unit bet on the Celtics priced as a 14-point favorite. 

Consider betting 5-units on the Celtics preflop and then look to add the remaining 2-Units if the Celtics get priced at 9.5 points during the first half of action.  

Since 2021, this betting algorithm has produced highly profitable results with an eye-popping 26-4 SU and 24-6 ATS record good for 80% winning bets. Bet on hoe favorites that are coming off three consecutive games allowing no more than 105 points in each game and facing a foe that scored 120 or more points in their last game. 

Since 2016, favorites of 7.5 or more points in this situation have gone an impressive 31-3 SU and 23-10-1 ATYS good for 70% winning bets. 

Key Player Matchups 

The Celtics’ star-studded lineup, led by Jayson Tatum, holds significant edges over Orlando’s depleted roster. Here are three pivotal player matchups that could dictate Boston’s path to a sweep: 

Jayson Tatum vs. Paolo Banchero: Duke Duel in the Spotlight 

Why It Matters: Tatum, a 2024 Finals MVP contender, faces his former Duke teammate Banchero, Orlando’s rising star. This matchup pits Boston’s versatile superstar against a young forward tasked with carrying the Magic’s offense. 

Analytics Edge: Tatum averaged 30 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists on 45.9% three-point shooting (17-for-37) against Orlando this season, including a 26-point blowout win on January 17. His Player Impact Estimate (PIE) of 18.2 dwarfs Banchero’s 14.5, reflecting Tatum’s two-way dominance. Banchero, who missed time with an oblique injury, averaged 15 points and 6 assists in the April 9 win but struggled (40% FG) against Tatum’s defense. Boston’s 2nd-ranked offensive rating (118.5) thrives when Tatum exploits mismatches, while Orlando’s 27th-ranked offensive rating (108.7) leans heavily on Banchero’s 22.6 points per game. 

Why Celtics Win This: Tatum’s playoff experience (6 conference finals in 8 years) and 37-6 record in games with 36.5%+ team three-point shooting overwhelm Banchero’s 0-2 playoff record. Orlando’s 30th-ranked three-point percentage (31.2%) can’t match Boston’s record-setting 1,457 made threes. If Tatum continues his 48% eFG% against Banchero, Boston cruises. 

Jaylen Brown vs. Franz Wagner: Physicality Meets Uncertainty 

Why It Matters: Brown, despite a lingering knee issue, is Boston’s second scoring option, while Wagner, Orlando’s other young wing, aims to disrupt with physical defense. Brown’s health is a question mark, but his practice participation signals readiness. 

Analytics Edge: Brown averaged 27.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5 assists on 48.8% shooting in two games against Orlando, showcasing his ability to overpower Wagner. Wagner, also recovering from an oblique injury, posted 23 points in the April 9 win but shot 42% overall against Boston. Orlando’s 2nd-ranked defensive rating (108.2) limits three-point attempts (fewest in NBA), but Boston’s 5th-ranked eFG% (.561) and Brown’s 1.3 steals per game exploit Wagner’s 2.1 turnovers. 

Why Celtics Win This: Brown’s 48-14 record as a playoff favorite and Boston’s 54-7 mark when outshooting opponents from three trump Wagner’s 9-12 record in close games. If Brown plays 30+ minutes (as in his 37-point outburst vs. Atlanta), Wagner’s 49% eFG% defense won’tcontain him, setting up a Celtics rout. 

Derrick White vs. Cole Anthony: Backcourt Mismatch 

Why It Matters: With Jalen Suggs out (knee injury), Anthony steps up as Orlando’s lead guard, facing White, Boston’s unsung two-way star. White’s three-point shooting and defense could expose Anthony’s inexperience. 

Analytics Edge: White’s 265 made threes (4th in NBA) and 1.2 steals per game fuel Boston’s 4th-ranked defensive rating (109.8). He averaged 21 points against Orlando, shooting 45% from three. Anthony’s 18 points off the bench in the April 9 win were solid, but his 38% three-point shooting and 3rd-ranked turnover rate (2.8 per game) among Magic starters are liabilities. Orlando’s 28th-ranked points per game (104.2) crumble in clutch situations (30th in clutch FG%), while Boston’s 7-2 clutch record shines. 

Why Celtics Win This: White’s 50.2% eFG% and 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio outclass Anthony’s 44% eFG% and 1.8 ratio. Boston’s 22-5 post-All-Star run, driven by White’s 39% three-point shooting, buries Orlando’s 9-3 finish, especially without Suggs’ perimeter defense. 

Key Team Matchups 

Boston’s well-rounded roster exploits Orlando’s offensive struggles and injury woes. Here are two critical team matchups that favor the Celtics: 

Boston’s Three-Point Barrage vs. Orlando’s Elite Perimeter Defense 

Why It Matters: Boston set NBA records with 1,457 made threes and 3,955 attempts, ranking 2nd in offensive rating (118.5). Orlando boasts the NBA’s best three-point defense, allowing the fewest attempts and makes, with a 2nd-ranked defensive rating (108.2). 

Analytics Edge: Boston shot 36.5% or better from three in 43 games, going 37-6, including a 17-for-37 (45.9%) performance in their 26-point win over Orlando on January 17. Orlando limited Boston to 15-for-73 (20.5%) in their two wins, but those games lacked Tatum or the full Celtics lineup. The Magic rank last in three-point makes and 30th in three-point percentage (31.2%), while Boston’s 54-7 record when outshooting opponents from three is unmatched. 

Why Celtics Win This: Orlando’s defense relies on physicality, but Boston’s 5th-ranked eFG% (.561) and depth (Tatum, White, Pritchard’s 255 threes) overwhelm. The Magic’s 1.07 points per possession (2nd-worst in NBA) can’t keep pace if Boston hits 36%+ from deep, as in 43 of 82 games. 

Boston’s Playoff Experience vs. Orlando’s Youth and Injuries 

Why It Matters: Boston’s core has reached six conference finals in eight years, going 15-3 in last year’s playoffs. Orlando, with Banchero and Wagner missing significant time and Suggs and Moe Wagner out, lacks playoff pedigree (0-2 in recent postseasons). 

Analytics Edge: Boston’s 61-21 record, 4th-ranked defensive rating (109.8), and 2nd-ranked net rating (+8.7) reflect their consistency. Orlando’s 41-41 record, 27th-ranked offensive rating (108.7), and 28th-ranked points per game (104.2) highlight their struggles. The Magic’s 30th-ranked clutch FG% and 24th-ranked field goal percentage (44.1%) falter against Boston’s 7-2 clutch record and 48.1% field goal percentage (8th in NBA). 

Why Celtics Win This: Boston’s 4-1 first-round record in recent years (four sweeps or five games) and 48-14 favorite record crush Orlando’s 9-12 underdog clip. The Magic’s injuries (Suggs, Moe Wagner) and 15-7 start undone by a .500 finish post-injuriescan’t match Boston’s 22-5 post-All-Star surge. 

Why the Celtics Could Easily Sweep the Magic 

The Celtics are poised for a 4-0 sweep due to overwhelming advantages in talent, experience, and matchup dynamics, supported by analytics and Orlando’s limitations: 

Firepower and Depth: Boston’s record-setting three-point shooting (1,457 makes, 36.8% as a team) and 2nd-ranked offensive rating (118.5) exploit Orlando’s 27th-ranked offensive rating (108.7) and last-place three-point makes. With Tatum, Brown, White, and Pritchard all surpassing 250 threes, Boston’s 37-6 record when shooting 36.5%+ from deep is a death knell for Orlando’s 30th-ranked three-point defense (31.2%). Even if Orlando limits attempts (as in their 15-for-73 defensive wins), Boston’s 45.1% overall FG% against the Magic and 5th-ranked eFG% (.561) ensure scoring efficiency. 

Playoff Pedigree: Boston’s core, with 15-3 playoff wins last season and six conference finals trips, thrives in high-pressure moments (7-2 clutch record). Orlando’s young roster, with Banchero and Wagner at 0-2 in playoffs and no Suggs or Moe Wagner, ranks 28th in clutch points and 30th in clutch FG%. The Celtics’ 4-1 first-round history (sweeps or five games) and 48-14 favorite record dwarf Orlando’s 9-12 underdog struggles. 

Injury and Roster Gaps: Orlando’s season was derailed by injuries to Banchero (oblique), Wagner (oblique), Suggs (knee, out), and Moe Wagner (ACL, out), dropping them from a 15-7 start to .500. Boston, despite Brown’s knee concern, has a healthy Tatum, Porzingis (missed 40 games but ready), and depth (Horford, Pritchard). Brown’s full practice participation and Boston’s 26-point win with their full lineup signal dominance. Orlando’s 1.07 points per possession (2nd-worst) can’t match Boston’s 118.5 points per game (3rd in NBA). 

Historical Precedent: Boston’s 26-point win on January 17 (121-94) with their full lineup exposed Orlando’s inability to counter Boston’s spacing and defense. Orlando’s two wins (108-104, 96-76) came without Tatum or Boston’s top six, rendering them unreliable predictors. The Celtics’ 61-21 record, 22-5 post-All-Star run, and 54-7 mark when outshooting opponents from three contrast sharply with Orlando’s 41-41 record and 9-3 finish against weaker foes. 

Orlando’s Offensive Woes: The Magic’s 28th-ranked points per game (104.2), 24th-ranked FG% (44.1%), and 30th-ranked three-point percentage (31.2%) crumble against Boston’s 4th-ranked defensive rating (109.8) and 1.8 blocks per game (Porzingis, Horford). Orlando’s reliance on Banchero and Wagner (49% of team points) falters against Boston’s 2nd-ranked net rating (+8.7) and White’s 1.2 steals. 

Potential Obstacles to a Sweep 

While a sweep is likely, two factors could extend the series: 

Jaylen Brown’s Knee: Brown’s injections and minutes restriction (mid-March) raise concerns. If he’s limited, Orlando’s physicality (led by Wagner) could steal a game, as seen in their 108-104 win. 

Orlando’s Defense: The Magic’s 2nd-ranked defensive rating (108.2) and league-best three-point defense (fewest attempts allowed) disrupted Boston’s 15-for-73 three-point shooting in two wins. If they replicate this, a Game 3 or 4 upset in Orlando is possible. However, Boston’s 37-6 record when shooting 36.5%+ from three and 26-point win with their full lineup suggest these hurdles are surmountable. 

1* Free Pick on Padres/Astros: under 8½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Gilbert Burns +140

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Bucks/Pacers OVER 224

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Pacers and Thunder.  The Pacers and Thunder combined for 245, 229, 232 and 246 points in their four regular season meetings this season.  That 245-point total came in their final meeting on March 15th just over a month ago.  The Bucks have proven to be just fine without Damian Lillard going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall while scoring at least 121 points in seven of their last nine games.  The Pacers like to push the tempo and will control the tempo playing at home in Game 1 today.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on SV Werder Bremen -145

Huge Saturday Card up with 3 BIG NBA Playoff games one is an Executive Level TIER 1. There is also the Spanish LA LIGA Soccer play of the Year a 5* NHL Perfect Game 1 System and our April Specific MLB Systems. Comp play below.

The MLB Comp play is on Chicago at 2:20 eastern Today. The Cubs cashed for us on Friday and we will back them again today as April home teams off a home win scoring 13 or more have won at an 80% clip since 2004 vs a team that scored 11 or more runs like Arizona. The Cubs blew a 7-1 lead in the 8TH when Arizona put up 10 runs. The Cubs then mounted a come back scoring 6 runs and taking a 13-11 lead and bagged the win. Today they face Zac Gallen for the 2nd time this season after beating Arizona 10-6 on the road. Gallen has lost 10 of 15 as a road favorite with revenge. He has been a bit off this year with an ERA Approaching 5. Ben Brown also has an elevated ERA at 5.09 . However 3 of his 4 starts have been against the Dodgers and Padres. He does have 6 days rest here.  For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Cubs. Rob V-

MIKE'S CLIPPERS/NUGGETS NBA FREE PICK

The Denver Nuggets are the higher seed, but the Los Angeles Clippers closed out the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the league, winning eight in a row and 18 of their last 21. They're a different team with Kawhi Leonard healthy, and they have the players to shut down Nikola Jokic. I would not be surprised if the Clippers pull off an upset here in Game 1 of this playoff series. 

3% FREE PICK ON THE CLIPPERS. 

Over the years, Mike Lundin has established himself as one of the sharpest handicappers in the world. He's 18-9 (67%) with his MLB premium picks on the season, and his 3-pack for Saturday will give you access to 2 MLB and 1 NBA winners.

Grab a subscription and get access to all posted picks and future picks as they are released. 

1* Free Pick on Aidan Stephen +177

Ricky's 1* play on MUN.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Manchester United are unbeaten in all of their last 7 home matches in all competitions.

- Wolverhampton have defeated Manchester United in just 1 of their last 13 away meetings in all competitions.

- Manchester United are 3-0-3 in their last 6 home matches.

Verdict: The value is on the Home underdog.

Chip’s ‘Guaranteed’ NBA Triple Play of Best Bets

Chip Chirimbes, the Big Game Player, Las Vegas Hilton Champion, and seven-time basketball Handicapping Champion went 1-1 in NBA action on Friday winning his Money Game Memphis (-6) 120-106 over Dallas. Chip has been labeled a ‘postseason wizard’ by the nation’s media and after a fabulous Bowl and NCAA BK run (Megabucks 6-2 75%) he’s proving it again! Saturday, receive his ‘Guaranteed’ Triple-Play of NBA Best Bet winners including his Highest-Rated Megabucks winner between the LA Clippers and Denver, his Top-rated Power Play winner between Minnesota and the LA Lakers and his Top-rated Money Game winner between Milwaukee and Indiana. Receive Chip’s NBA Triple-Play of Best Bets is ‘Guaranteed to profit’ for only $69.

Chip’s FREE NBA winner

Detroit at New York 6:00 ET

Pistons (+) over Knicks - I like Detroit here I rally do but their is way too much interest in the Pistons than for it to me be anything but a FREE selection. Good luck…take DETROIT!

Clippers +2.5

The Clippers are worth a free move here on Saturday. Los Angeles was one of the best teams in the league over the last 6-7 weeks and they are going to give the Nuggets a lot of issues. Denver is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games and they haven’t looked good down the stretch. They fired their coach and GM, as this team is just a mess limping into the postseason. Back the Clippers. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the CLIPPERS ATS tonight. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray .

Saturday 5* NBA ATS Play

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Recommended Bet: TSV Hartberg +237